Ep83 - Macro Forces Affecting Your Investments: An Interview with Robert Savage of Savage Markets
Summary
In episode 83, host Dan Passorelli interviews Robert Savage, a former Bank of New York strategist, on macro forces affecting investments. They discuss how supply shocks and potential stagflation are driving market dispersion, making the underinvested materials sector a key opportunity. Savage also explains how predictive markets and yen carry trade unwinds influence volatility and option pricing. The conversation concludes with advice on navigating a high nominal GDP environment by favoring volatility ownership and sector-specific strategies over broad index bets.
Topics discussed
Sector rotation and the underinvested materials sector
Introduction of guest Robert Savage
Robert Savage's career path from quant to trader
Transition to sales, research, and founding Savage Markets
Using flow data and options for market forecasting
The rise and utility of predictive markets
Why prediction markets are more accurate than polls
Japanese yen intervention and impact on US equities
Unwinding of the Asian carry trade
Shift from demand to supply shocks and stagflation
Nominal GDP growth and stock market dispersion
Navigating stagflation: Materials and sector strategies
Interest rates, consumer health, and Fed policy
Promoting the Savage Markets podcast
Wealth Building with Options community and subscription
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