The TPM Show with Josh and Kate The TPM Show with Josh and Kate

Republicans Are Getting Spooked

Sep 23, 2026 · 59m

Summary

Josh and Kate analyze the 2026 midterm landscape, noting that Republicans are in "crisis mode" as polls show worsening trends despite their internal optimism. They discuss recent rating downgrades for key Senate races in Kansas, Michigan, and Iowa, attributing the shift to low Trump approval ratings and a 35-point Democratic lead among Hispanic voters in Florida and Texas. The hosts also cover the fallout from weak Republican candidates, internal GOP infighting in Texas, and the potential for a Democratic "blue tsunami" if current polling holds.

Topics discussed

Midterm election backdrop and crisis mode Prognosticators and the shift in race ratings Kansas Senate race: Hamilton vs. Marshall Polling disputes and GOP candidates calling for war end Internal polling leaks and state muscle memory Weak Republican candidates in key Senate races Winnability of red states: Iowa and Ohio Texas primary infighting: Paxton, Cornyn, and Crockett Jasmine Crockett's criticism of Tallarico Governor races in Florida and Texas Trump's endorsement of Byron Donalds in Florida Hispanic voter approval and the collapse of realignment Immigration politics and House seat vulnerabilities Republican spending advantages and incumbent funding gaps Missouri gerrymander legal battle and Supreme Court orders Judicial maneuvering and state court dynamics in Missouri
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