Why Nuclear War Is More Likely Than You Think (with Carlo Rovelli)
Summary
Professor Carlo Rovelli joins Rory Stewart to discuss the rising risk of nuclear war, arguing that the current danger exceeds that of the Cold War. They explore factors such as the shift from a two-superpower dynamic to a three-way game involving China, the integration of unreliable AI into rapid decision-making, and the geopolitical instability surrounding smaller nuclear states like Israel and North Korea. Rovelli also critiques European rearmament efforts, warning that increased military spending and far-right politics may inadvertently weaken Europe and escalate tensions with Russia.
Topics discussed
Introduction to Carlo Rovelli and the topic of nuclear war
Why nuclear war feels unfashionable compared to the 1960s
The risk is higher today: The 85 Seconds to Midnight context
Factor 1: Political neglect and the shift from two to three superpowers
Factor 2: The dangers of AI in rapid nuclear decision-making
Debate: Are small nuclear states like Israel or North Korea the real risk?
Rovelli's view: Big powers pose the greater existential threat
Historical parallels: Rearmament in the 1930s and current European tensions
Critique of European rearmament and US influence on European politics
Conclusion: The blindness of political elites to impending disaster
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