How Not to Know: The Science of Uncertainty with Simone Stolzoff
Summary
Jay Papazian interviews author Simone Stolzoff about his book *How Not to Know*, exploring how leaders can build tolerance for uncertainty. They discuss overcoming three traps—comfort, hubris, and control—by leveraging past resilience, practicing exposure to randomness, and trusting future selves. The episode also covers navigating crises through defined priorities and taking the next right action, emphasizing that clarity emerges from moving forward despite ambiguity.
Topics discussed
Introduction: Embracing uncertainty and meeting Simone Stolzoff
The three traps of certainty: Comfort, Hubris, and Control
Origin of the book and the value of tolerating uncertainty
Building tolerance: Past evidence, present exposure, and future trust
Trusting your future self: The Emily Unhalt story
Case study: Max's experiment with randomizing life decisions
Algorithmic comfort vs. serendipity in travel and choice
Asking better questions to find off-the-beaten-path experiences
Redefining crisis: Meredith Wilson's holistic approach
Navigating crisis: Defining the problem and aligning with values
Taking the next right action: Prioritization over planning
Host's personal application: Budgeting and stepping off the precipice
Letting go of ghost ships: Accepting the paths not taken
Conclusion: Rowing through the fog and listener challenge
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