How we know when someone wins an election
Summary
NPR hosts Tamara Keith and Domenico Montanaro interview AP Vice President of Elections David Scott to explain the mechanics of election night race calls. Scott details how the AP deploys 5,000 staff to verify results across 5,000 reporting units, distinguishing their "certainty" standard from broadcast network projections. The discussion covers the evolution of exit polling, past errors like the 2020 Arizona call, and why decentralized state systems make accurate, real-time reporting complex.
Topics discussed
Sponsor: Con Edison
Introduction: The meaning of AP race calls
Guest introduction: David Scott of AP Elections
History and definition of AP race calls
Calls vs. Projections: The standard of certainty
Gathering data: 5,000 reporting units and sources
Staffing the election night operation
How poll-close calls are made
The AP Voter Poll and exit polling methodology
Sponsors and announcements
Accuracy record and past errors in race calls
Lessons from the 2020 Arizona election
Evolution of race calling since 2000
Why race calls matter: News and misinformation
Oversight and the decentralized nature of US elections
Why NPR relies on AP for election coverage
What to watch for on election night
Closing remarks and sign-off
Sponsor: Wealthfront
Promo: NPR App Elections 2026
Listen ad-free on Castria