Which jobs are future-proofed?
Summary
This episode explores the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Occupational Outlook Handbook, a resource used to predict future job growth. Hosts Wayne Wong and Darren Woods discuss how the BLS calculates these projections by analyzing historical trends and adjusting for emerging factors like AI. Economist Maxime Massinkoff’s research reveals that while simple trend extrapolation explains much of the accuracy, the BLS’s specific forecasts have historically outperformed baseline models, correctly predicting whether occupations would grow or shrink about 70% of the time.
Topics discussed
Intro: Labor Day and the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook
Sponsorships: Capella University and Superhuman
Listener Asa's question on job security and BLS data
Top and bottom jobs on the BLS growth list
How BLS economists calculate job growth projections
Specific outlook for information security analysts
History of the Occupational Outlook report since WWII
Historical examples of BLS predictions (good and bad)
Research findings on the accuracy of BLS forecasts
Comparing BLS accuracy to simple trend extrapolation
Conclusion: Asa's reaction and final takeaways
Outro and Workday sponsorship
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