Which jobs are future-proofed?
Summary
This episode explores the reliability of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Occupational Outlook Handbook, a key resource for predicting future job markets. Hosts Wayne Wong and Darren Woods discuss how the BLS uses historical trends and emerging factors like AI to forecast employment, featuring insights from BLS economist Sarah Matson. They also examine research by economist Maxime Massinkoff, who found that while simple trend extrapolation explains much of the accuracy, the BLS’s projections have historically been 70% correct in identifying whether specific occupations will grow or shrink.
Topics discussed
Intro: Labor Day and the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook
Listener Asa's question on job security and BLS data
Top and bottom jobs on the BLS growth list
How BLS economists calculate job growth projections
History of the Occupational Outlook report since 1946
Past predictions: archaeologists, vets, and barbers
Maxime Massinkoff's research on projection accuracy
BLS internal accuracy stats and listener follow-up
Asa's reaction and episode credits
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