Did Jalen Hurts break my interception model?
Summary
The episode analyzes whether Jalen Hurts has defied statistical models by maintaining a low interception rate despite an average bad ball rate. The host argues that while quarterbacks control risky throws, the outcome of deflections is random, leading to expected regression toward the league average. Using Matthew Stafford’s career variance as a parallel, the analysis predicts Hurts’ interception rate will likely rise in 2026.
Topics discussed
Jalen Hurts' low interception rate in 2025
Defining bad ball rate as a better metric
Hurts' bad ball rate vs. interception luck
Long-term trends for Hurts over 4 seasons
Has Hurts broken the interception model?
Randomness in deflected passes
Quarterback control over bad balls
Regression to the mean for interception ratios
Hurts' conversion rate and 2026 outlook
Case study: Matthew Stafford 2020-2022
Stafford's recent regression to average
Conclusion: Hurts has not broken the model
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