Why does BTC continue to track the 4-Year Cycle?
Summary
Mike Howell explains Bitcoin’s four-year cycle as a function of credit and leverage rather than mere coincidence. He analyzes drivers like stablecoin supply, DeFi loans, derivatives, and miner financing to show how liquidity expands during bull markets and contracts in bear markets. The episode also addresses his cautious stance on Ether and Solana, favoring specific application-layer assets over base infrastructure.
Topics discussed
Introduction: The mystery of the four-year crypto cycle
Sponsor message: Galaxy Digital
Bitcoin's capital base and realized cap as a floor
Stablecoin supply dynamics and liquidity drivers
Venture capital cycles and airdrop impacts
DeFi active loans and on-chain lending trends
Bitcoin futures open interest and leverage
Digital asset treasuries and MicroStrategy leverage
Miner behavior and natural selection in bear markets
Why the cycle lasts four years: Data vs. Psychology
Investment thesis: Ethereum and Solana vs. Bitcoin
Conclusion and Watchlist promotion
Listen ad-free on Castria