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Bill Kristol and JVL: Trump Could Be More Dangerous Post-Election

Nov 2, 2026 · 1h 18m

Summary

Host Tim Miller and Bill Kristol analyze the unprecedented uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict and potential nuclear strikes ahead of the midterms. They discuss the latest New York Times/Siena polls indicating a significant Democratic wave, while also addressing election integrity concerns in Alaska and the performance of key Senate candidates.

Topics discussed

Sponsor: Clinique Moisture Surge Intro and guest introduction Bill Kristol's concert setlist and midterm signals Iran war strategy and election timing John Fetterman's health update Nuclear strike threats against Iran Consequences of breaking nuclear taboo Trump's megalomania and historical parallels Assessing the threat level of escalation Alaska election threats and legal wins Republican efforts to tilt the playing field Sponsor: Babbel language learning New York Times poll and psychological effects Polling methodology and weighting issues Consistency across Senate, House, and early voting Favorability ratings for key Senate candidates Crossover voter advantage in red states Models for winning red state Senate races Sponsor: Hotels.com Sponsor: CVS Kansas medical debt and Bill of Rights Republican campaign strategies in swing states Undecided voters and Trump base dynamics Prognostications for House and Senate outcomes Early voting data and partisan breakdown Key House races closing at 6 PM Districts closing at 7 PM and wave indicators Hispanic vote shifts in Florida and Arizona Analyzing early vote translation to final results Sponsor: Hotels.com Sponsor: CVS Final Senate predictions and hopes Texas governor race and election night parties House and Senate final thoughts Nervousness about Iowa and Senate balance Caution against overestimating Democratic wave Trump's campaign stops and closing messages Final predictions and betting on outcomes Abdul El-Sayed's lead and war costs Sponsor: Hotels.com Sponsor: CVS Haley Stevens' erratic behavior and t-shirt Stevens' switch and primary aftermath Assessing Stevens' mental state Concerns about electing unstable candidates Stevens' personal life and campaign decisions Political implications of Stevens' switch Mike Rogers' anti-Muslim campaign tactics Progressive vs. centrist support dynamics Centrist endorsement and party unity Timeline of Stevens' endorsement reversal Stevens' press conference and motivations Lack of demands on Mike Rogers Stevens' CNN interview and India trips Stevens' call for kindness in the party Critique of Mike Rogers as a candidate Impact on Democratic unity and turnout Polling data on Abdul El-Sayed's lead Sensitivity to anti-Semitism and Islamophobia Israel-Palestine and US foreign policy Post-Trump era and Israel relations How the race exacerbates domestic tensions AIPAC and support for Trump's subversion Speculation on Stevens' future Closing remarks and distraction from anxiety Sponsor: Hotels.com Sponsor: Shell
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