Why Iowa’s the Dark Horse Battleground of 2026
Summary
Stuart Stevens joins Simon to strategize for the Iowa Senate race, advising the Turek campaign to prioritize negative contrast ads over positive messaging to capitalize on voter anger toward Trump. They discuss the critical importance of maintaining high-intensity attacks in the final weeks to prevent late-breaking voters from breaking against Democrats, citing the 2024 election as a cautionary tale. The conversation also highlights the success of super PACs like Senate Majority PAC in flipping Republican states through sustained negative advertising. Finally, Stevens warns that the coming …
Topics discussed
Sponsorship and introduction
Setting the stage: Strategy for the Iowa Senate race
The case for negative advertising over positive messaging
Campaign logistics: Polling, location, and message discipline
Connecting Ashley Hinson to Trump and framing the choice
Leveraging allied candidates and framing a historic win
Iowa's political shift and the call to volunteer
Reconnecting with non-college white voters and government trust
National election outlook and early voting trends
Avoiding the 'positive trap' in the final weeks
Lessons from 2024: The cost of insufficient negative ads
Trump's all-negative strategy and the need for contrast
Impact of Senate Majority PAC ads in swing states
Polling surprises and simplifying the change message
Russia-Ukraine: The coming brutal winter
Closing remarks and post-election collaboration
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