The Breakdown The Breakdown

Rick Wilson

Oct 8, 2026 · 42m

Summary

Hosts Rick Wilson, Tessa Gould, and Andrew Wilson analyze early voting trends showing strong Democratic momentum and discuss the significant de-alignment of Latino voters from the Republican Party due to economic concerns. The episode covers why national polls often miss key voter segments, highlights a major shift in public support for Medicare for All, and identifies "sleeper" races in Pennsylvania, Kansas, and Florida. The hosts also react to breaking news that Trump fired his top political consultants for working with a pro-Russia Serbian party.

Topics discussed

Introduction and host banter Early voting trends and mail-in ballot analysis Republican demoralization and campaign messaging Why polls fail and the importance of candidate quality Texas Senate race: Paxton vs. Tallarico Latino voter realignment and economic concerns Breaking news: Trump's consultants in Serbia Latino polling data on economic issues California Governor race and Trump's Iran comments KFF poll: Medicare for All and issue salience Presidential approval and midterm seat losses Sleeper race: Pennsylvania 8th (Cognetti vs. Resnahan) Sleeper race: Kansas Senate Sleeper races: Florida 13th and 8th Districts
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