5: Our First 2028 Democratic Primary Draft!
Summary
Hosts Galen Drake, Claire Malone, and Nate Silver analyze the 2024 midterm forecast, noting Democrats' strong Senate odds while highlighting vulnerabilities in Minnesota and other northern states. They discuss how incumbent unpopularity and candidate quality are impacting races like Peggy Flanagan’s in Minnesota. The episode also features the show’s first-ever 2028 Democratic primary draft, where the hosts select their top contenders, including Gavin Newsom, John Ossoff, and AOC. Finally, the trio announces their first live show at Crooked Con in Washington, D.C., scheduled for November 7th.
Topics discussed
Intro: Nate's Twitter habits and the forecast
Midterm polling: Democratic gains and Senate outlook
Polling accuracy and the role of undecided voters
Republican damage control and PAC spending shifts
Interpreting Republican internal polling signals
Minnesota Senate race: Headwinds for Democrats
Democratic underperformance in safe states (NY, OR)
Favorability ratings and candidate profiles in battlegrounds
Prediction markets and Senate odds
Long-term competitiveness of Northern states
Announcement: First Still Counting live show at Crooked Con
Sponsor read: Z-Biotics pre-alcohol probiotic
2028 Democratic Primary Draft: Rules and setup
Draft picks: Newsom, Harris, and early contenders
Draft picks: Ossoff, AOC, and the 'turn the page' argument
Draft picks: Buttigieg, Shapiro, and centrist candidates
AOC's viability, AI stance, and general election concerns
Sponsor read: Built app for homeowners
Polling data and Harris's primary electability issues
Primary strategy: Early states and voter demographics
Buttigieg's strengths and the primary calendar
Gender dynamics and electability in the 2028 race
Draft picks: Kelly, Gallego, and progressive contenders
Draft picks: Shapiro, Bashir, and Jewish candidates
Draft picks: Tallarico, Beto, and El-Sayed
Draft picks: Peltola, Khanna, and long shots
Draft picks: Bashir and final selections
Final draft results and team comparison
Credits and production staff
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