Risky Bulletin Risky Bulletin

Between Two Nerds: The cyber resistance!

Aug 10, 2026 · 29m

Summary

Tom Muren and Grack analyze cyber resistance groups, contrasting the Ukraine IT Army’s chaotic volunteer efforts with the Belarus Cyber Partisans’ strategic approach. They argue that while the IT Army’s direct cyber impact was minimal, it yielded significant political and fundraising benefits through global engagement. Conversely, the Belarus group employs a disciplined theory of victory to undermine their government, though they lack the hard power to convert cyber annoyance into regime change. The discussion concludes that cyber operations primarily serve political goals rather than milit…

Topics discussed

Introduction and overview of cyber resistance groups History and structure of the Ukraine IT Army The problem of converting cyber effects into advantage Political benefits and opportunity costs of the IT Army Belarus Cyber Partisans: Strategy and theory of victory Limitations of cyber attacks without hard power support Iranian cyber attacks as political warfare tools Conclusion: Cyber war as politics by other means
Listen ad-free on Castria