The AI Bubble Isn't Where You Think It Is
Summary
This episode examines the emerging credit crisis among AI data center providers like CoreWeave, arguing that while the stock market has already priced in AI risks, a massive bubble persists in private markets. The host contends that OpenAI and Anthropic are significantly overvalued compared to public peers, with Anthropic’s $2 trillion valuation resting on questionable "adjusted" profitability metrics. As Anthropic prepares for its imminent IPO, the episode predicts a potential delay or price cut as the company confronts the harsher valuation standards of public markets.
Topics discussed
Sponsorship segments: Goldman Sachs, Amex, and LinkedIn
Introduction: The tale of two bubbles and AI warnings
CoreWeave credit crisis and unsustainable debt structure
Rising data center costs and falling AI token prices
Warning signs of a neocloud implosion
Why the stock market is not about to crash
Falling valuations of major AI chip makers
Performance of neocloud stocks and big tech
Big tech multiples and cautious optimism
The true bubble: OpenAI and Anthropic valuations
Critique of 'adjusted' profitability metrics
Extreme revenue multiples and the greater fool theory
The divide between private and public market investors
Comparing private valuations to public market multiples
Upcoming IPOs and the reality check ahead
Prediction: Anthropic may delay its IPO
Show credits and Substack promotion
Sponsorship segments: LinkedIn, Bose, and Sweetgreen
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