Oil Expert: We Can’t Predict Iran Anymore
Summary
Host Ed Elson discusses oil markets with Kepler’s Matt Smith, analyzing how Trump’s mixed signals on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz keep prices elevated despite improving flows. The episode also features Jonathan Cohen from the Institute for Boys and Men, who explains how DraftKings uses AI to target vulnerable gamblers and the regulatory threats facing prediction markets. Finally, Elson critiques the recent AI safety debate, arguing that the conversation lacks factual evidence and relies too heavily on unverified opinions.
Topics discussed
Sponsors: VCX, Ateio, and Goldman Sachs Exchanges
Market Vitals: Nasdaq, S&P, Dow, and Oil Prices
Oil Volatility: Trump's UN Speech and Iran Tensions
Interview: Matt Smith on the Oil Holding Pattern
Modeling Uncertainty: JPMorgan's Abandoned Forecast
Diesel Prices and Strait of Hormuz Risk Premium
Long-Term Outlook: Diesel Export Bans and Supply
Trader Sentiment and Market Complexity
Sponsors: NetSuite, AlphaSpace, and Apple Watch
DraftKings AI Scoring and Sports Betting Stocks
Interview: Jonathan Cohen on AI Targeting Vulnerable Gamblers
Sports Betting Growth and Revenue Concentration
Prediction Markets Competition and Stock Performance
Evidence of Harm: Bankruptcies and Social Impact
Celebrity Endorsements and the Sydney Sweeney Ad
Demographics: Why Young Men Are Key Customers
Regulatory Outlook: Supreme Court and Prediction Markets
AI Extinction Debate: Opinions vs. Evidence
Credits and Sponsors: Anthropic, Avatar, and SoDoc
Listen ad-free on Castria