What the Final Polls Tell Us
Summary
Host Tommy Vietor and CNN data analyst Harry Enten analyze midterm election polls two days before voting, focusing on the high likelihood of a Democratic House sweep due to Trump's low approval ratings. They discuss specific Senate races in Texas, Michigan, Ohio, and Alaska, while addressing concerns about polling errors and underestimating Republican strength. The conversation also covers the impact of demographic shifts and the potential for split tickets in gubernatorial races.
Topics discussed
Sponsorship and CrookedCon lineup updates
Intro, election anxiety, and guest introduction
Historical midterm trends and Trump's approval
Polling errors, response bias, and 2024 parallels
House of Representatives projections and bellwethers
Sponsor segments for Wild Alaskan and Hims
Texas Senate race: Tallarico vs. Corn
Michigan Senate race and fake polling concerns
Alaska Senate race and October surprises
Sponsor segments for Stamps.com and AG1
Ohio Senate race: Brown vs. Husted
Maine and Iowa Senate races analysis
Split ticket voting and governor's races
Mint Mobile sponsorship
Election night livestream and Hotels.com sponsor
Outlier states: Kansas, South Carolina, Nebraska
Black voter turnout and early voting data
Election night timing and result prediction
Future of polling and data sources
Outro and final sponsorships
Listen ad-free on Castria