Before Kalshi and Polymarket there was the Iowa Electronic Markets
Summary
Planet Money explores the history of prediction markets, featuring an excerpt from NPR’s ThruLine podcast. The story traces their origins from 19th-century election betting on Wall Street to the 1988 Iowa Electronic Markets experiment by economists. It explains how these markets often outperformed polls before fading due to the rise of scientific polling and horse racing.
Topics discussed
Intro and listener check-in on the economy
Introduction to prediction markets history
The 1988 Iowa Electronic Markets experiment
Historical roots: Racetracks and 19th-century betting
Decline, revival, and modern prediction markets
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