The Unanchored Central Banker: Manoj Pradhan on Inflation, Demographics, and Why AI Won't Save Us
Summary
Patrick Boyle interviews Manoj Prada about their new book, The Unanchored Central Banker, which argues that aging demographics will drive persistent inflation and rising real interest rates. They discuss how mainstream models overlook the inflationary impact of growing public debt and why AI cannot fully offset labor shortages in care sectors. The conversation also covers the end of China’s disinflationary export boom and the increasing political pressure on central banks to accommodate fiscal deficits.
Topics discussed
Sponsors and Intro
Guest Intro: Manoj Prada and New Book
Demographic Reversal and Inflation Thesis
Aging Societies and Public Debt Dynamics
US Social Security and Fiscal Challenges
Ad Break: Row Health
Global Debt Sustainability and Interest Rates
Dual Phillips Curve and China's Disinflation
China's Export Strategy and Domestic Deflation
AI, Labor Shortages, and Productivity
Ad Break: Thinkorswim and Amex
Universal Basic Income and AI Impact
AI and Inequality in Emerging Markets
Political Economy and Central Bank Independence
Ad Break: Oats and Visible
Fiscal Policy Risks and Conclusion
Outro and Final Sponsors
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