Is Anthropic Worth Two Trillion Dollars?
Summary
Patrick Boyle examines Anthropic’s proposed $200 billion IPO, arguing the valuation is unsustainable given rising interest rates and circular industry financing. He contrasts this with Nvidia’s surprisingly low multiple, attributing it to cyclical risks and the lack of short-selling in private markets. The episode also highlights the rapid collapse of AI model prices and the potential for a market correction similar to the dot-com bubble.
Topics discussed
Sponsor: LinkedIn Hiring Pro
Sponsor: Uber Eats Game Day Deals
Anthropic's $200B IPO and the AI market paradox
Valuation methods: DCF and comparable multiples
Rising interest rates and the IPO freeze
Sponsor: LinkedIn Hiring Pro and Uber Eats
The Scott McNeely test and the math of $200B
Total Addressable Market (TAM) inflation and history
Recursive AI, GDP projections, and research reality
Sponsor: LinkedIn and Uber Eats
SB Energy: Valuing unbuilt data centers
The circular funding chain: SoftBank, OpenAI, Nvidia
Why Nvidia is cheap: Four market explanations
AI price wars and falling model costs
The bull case: Usage growth and retention
IPO risks for SoftBank and the market test
Conclusion: Historical stock issuance and advice
Sponsor: Uber Eats
Sponsor: Citizens Bank and Silicon Valley Bank
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