Football Analytics for Everyone
Summary
Hosted by operations staff member Andrew Oja, this episode of Off The Charts demystifies football analytics for a general audience. The hosts discuss the varying levels of analytics adoption across the NFL and college football, noting that financial constraints and organizational buy-in drive these differences. They provide a detailed breakdown of Expected Points Added (EPA), explaining how it contextualizes yards by down and distance to unify scoring, rushing, and turnovers into a single currency. Finally, the team explains the "Total Points" metric, which allocates EPA to individual playe…
Topics discussed
Introduction and the 'every person' analytics concept
Comparing analytics adoption in NFL vs. MLB
Correlation between analytics buy-in and team success
Analytics trends in college football and NIL
Defining Expected Points Added (EPA)
How EPA contextualizes plays by down and distance
EPA limitations: time, game state, and strategy
EPA as a unified currency for football stats
High-leverage plays and the stickiness of EPA
Valuing 3rd/4th downs vs. staying ahead of sticks
Why different EPA models produce varying results
Breaking down EPA into individual player stats
Introducing Total Points and Points Above Average
Place selection adjustments for running vs. passing
Defensive value: Interceptions, sacks, and pressure
Total Points: Descriptive vs. predictive utility
Evaluating player consistency and skill sets
Optimization, game style, and the future of football
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