A Historic El Niño Is Coming That Could Cost the World Trillions
Summary
Odd Lots hosts Tracy and Joe welcome Dartmouth professor Justin Mankin to discuss the economic impacts of the upcoming El Niño. Mankin explains the phenomenon’s mechanics and shares research suggesting El Niño causes permanent, not just temporary, depressions in global GDP growth. He estimates this record-breaking event could result in up to $14 trillion in global economic losses over five years, highlighting society’s lack of adaptation to climate variability.
Topics discussed
Sponsors: Interactive Brokers, ChatGPT, Home Depot
Intro: Hosts discuss weather skepticism and El Nino
El Nino's economic impact and historical context
Guest intro: Prof. Justin Mankin explains El Nino mechanics
Drivers of El Nino and ENSO variability patterns
Forecasting methods and historical record-breaking events
Discovery of El Nino and indigenous forecasting knowledge
Measuring El Nino intensity and spatial patterns
Timing impacts on agriculture and global temperatures
Sponsors: LinkedIn, Vital Proteins, Harley-Davidson
Permanent economic losses from El Nino shocks
Global simultaneity and long-term growth trajectory
Future risks and lack of optimal adaptation strategies
Resilience strategies and early warning systems
Counterfactual analysis and out-of-sample climate events
Conclusion, supply chain risks, and final sponsors
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