Downstream: Elites Have No Plan for Climate Change w/ Bill McGuire
Summary
Host Aaron Bastani interviews volcanologist Bill McGuire, who argues that climate breakdown is accelerating faster than predicted, citing recent UK heatwaves and harvest failures. McGuire draws parallels between current warming and geological events like the PETM, noting today’s carbon injection rates are unprecedented. He discusses his personal adaptation strategies, the inadequacy of the 1.5°C target, and the urgent need to prepare for extreme weather and potential food rationing.
Topics discussed
Introduction: Climate change as a gradual then sudden crisis
Guest background: From astronaut dreams to volcanology
Volcanic hazards: La Palma, Campi Flegrei, and tsunamis
Ignoring warnings: Political inaction on natural hazards
Personal adaptation: Moving to the Peak District for safety
Record heat and drought: The speed of climate breakdown
El Nino and the 1.5C threshold: Is it already breached?
Deep time history: PETM, mass extinctions, and feedbacks
Historical climate shifts: 8.2KA event and Roman Warm Period
Future projections: Pliocene conditions and societal collapse
Wet bulb temperature: The limit of human survivability
Sea level rise: Accelerating rates and ice sheet instability
Geoengineering risks: Solar radiation management and termination shock
Carbon removal: Basalt weathering and Jevons paradox
Conclusion: Decarbonization, biodiversity, and the sixth extinction
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