Der ungetestete Trader
Summary
This Mission Trading episode focuses on stress-testing trading strategies against historical bear market data, highlighting that duration, not just depth, is the primary risk. The host analyzes current US credit metrics, noting a 39% year-over-year increase and record monthly deleveraging, to warn of potential liquidity crises. He explains how margin calls and forced selling of winners can correlate assets during crashes, emphasizing the need for position sizing that survives doubled margin requirements. The episode concludes with five actionable questions for a personal portfolio stress te…
Topics discussed
Intro: The importance of tested trading rules
Why most strategies fail in bear markets
Historical data: Crash vs. Bear market duration
US credit debt statistics and current levels
How credit deleveraging triggers margin calls
Correlation in crashes and margin requirement spikes
Stress Test Q1: Calculating 35% index loss impact
Stress Test Q2: Defining your plan abandonment point
Stress Test Q3: Financial runway and separating accounts
Stress Test Q4: Identifying untested trading rules
Stress Test Q5: Action plan for a red day
Action 1: Setting strict position size limits
Action 2: Buying cheap insurance options early
Action 3: Diversifying across market regimes
Action 4: Using small drawdowns as live tests
Conclusion and immediate next steps
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