Vad driver valutorna just nu?
Summary
This episode of SCB's Makropodd features analysts Jens Magnusson, Filip Karlsson, and Carl Steiner discussing global currency trends and the newly released FX report. They explain that high energy prices and geopolitical tensions are keeping interest rates elevated, which benefits high-yield currencies like the Norwegian krone while weakening the Swedish krona and Japanese yen. The guests predict that a resolution to the Middle East conflict will lower energy costs, prompting central banks to cut rates and triggering a currency regime shift. Consequently, they forecast a significant recover…
Topics discussed
Introduction and market overview
Launch of the new FX report
Why currency analysis is complex
Global economy and the carry trade
Central banks and interest rate outlook
Strong and weak currencies in 2026
NOK/SEK parity and outlook
Geopolitics and the path to a new regime
2027 forecast: Yen and SEK recovery
Domestic factors supporting the krona
EUR/SEK trend and volatility
Public debt and currency impact
US fiscal policy and dollar weakness
Japan-US coordination and yen flows
Specific exchange rate forecasts
SEK beta and dollar weakness
NOK/SEK forecast for 2027
Summary and closing remarks
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