Introducing “You Might Be Right:” Can We Trust What the Polls Say About the 2026 Midterms?
Summary
Former Tennessee governors Phil Bredesen and Bill Haslam host political science experts Jonathan Rodden and Sam Wang to analyze the crisis of gerrymandering. The discussion covers the historical origins of the term, the impact of the Supreme Court’s recent ruling on the Voting Rights Act, and how geographic concentration affects electoral outcomes. Rodden argues that all-out partisan map-drawing may eventually force bipartisan reform, while Wang details his statistical methods for grading map fairness and advocates for independent citizen commissions. The episode concludes with a call for s…
Topics discussed
Sponsorships and show introduction
Episode context: gerrymandering and midterms
Origin of the term and current redistricting chaos
Guest intro: Jonathan Rodden and defining fairness
Competitive elections vs. procedural fairness
Geography, urban concentration, and partisan bias
Historical evolution of districting and one-person-one-vote
Impact of Supreme Court ruling on Voting Rights Act
Reform options: commissions and federal constraints
Proportional representation and constitutional hurdles
Partisan incentives and the potential for compromise
Increasing the size of Congress
Case study: Michigan's independent redistricting commission
Alternative methods: expert panels and procedural games
Guest reflection and closing thoughts
Guest intro: Sam Peltzman and his background
Root causes: single-member districts and voter choice
Princeton's grading rubric for district maps
Tennessee case study: splitting cities and representation
Founders' perspective and modern technological capabilities
Persuading partisans: why fair maps benefit everyone
Effectiveness of independent citizen commissions
Short-term and long-term reform strategies
Constitutional authority and voter engagement tactics
State innovations: Alaska and other examples
Guest reflection: changing views on primaries
Hosts' wrap-up: the House's original function
Outro and sponsorships
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