Guerre au Tigré: «Rien ne prouve que le TPLF trouvera l'appui populaire nécessaire à toute guérilla»
Summary
René Lefort analyzes the fragile alliance of seven armed groups challenging Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, noting that the Oromo opposition has disavowed the coalition. The discussion highlights Eritrea’s shift to supporting Tigrayan rebels and the potential for a proxy war involving Egypt, Sudan, and the UAE. Lefort argues that despite military setbacks, the TPLF faces significant hurdles in launching a guerrilla campaign due to severe civilian suffering and a lack of popular support.
Topics discussed
Assessment of the seven rebel groups' alliance strength
Context of the 2020-2022 war and Eritrea's shift
Analysis of the Pretoria agreement and Eritrean military role
Challenges for Tigrayan guerrilla warfare and popular support
Regional alliances: Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, and Somalia
Ethiopia's support from the UAE and Gulf states
Closing remarks and podcast promotion
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