Will China Attack Taiwan? | Ask The Professor
Summary
John Mearsheimer argues that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is unlikely in the next decade due to the PLA's lack of recent combat experience and the formidable defensive capabilities of US and Japanese forces, including drones and submarines. He contends that deterrence relies on ensuring any attack results in a pyrrhic victory rather than a guaranteed Chinese defeat. However, he notes a critical caveat: China would likely invade if Taiwan formally declared independence, a scenario the US actively prevents by pressuring Taiwan to maintain the status quo.
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