The apocalyptic El Niño we didn't see coming
Summary
This episode recounts the 1982–83 "Super El Niño" and the devastating Melbourne dust storm and Ash Wednesday bushfires that followed. Host Matt Bevan explores how researchers Neville Nicholls and John McBride used the Southern Oscillation Index to prove that long-range seasonal forecasting was possible, transforming Australian meteorology. The narrative contrasts the lack of warning in 1983 with modern predictions for a potentially record-breaking El Niño in 2024, while examining how climate change is altering the reliability of these historical weather patterns.
Topics discussed
Planet America's Fireside Chat: Midterm Elections Preview
The 1983 Melbourne Dust Storm: An Apocalyptic Day
1982-83 Global Chaos and the Rise of Super El Niño
The Drought Crisis and Failed Weather Prediction Attempts
The 1982 Seminar: Skepticism Toward Long-Range Forecasting
Nichols and McBride Discover the Southern Oscillation Link
Explaining El Niño and La Niña: The Warm Pool Mechanism
Scientific Resistance and the Need for a Major Event
The 1982-83 El Niño: Global Disasters and Confirmation
Ash Wednesday 1983: The Devastating Bushfires
The Breakthrough Paper and the Birth of Seasonal Forecasts
Climate Change: Raising the Floor of Extreme Weather
The Declining Reliability of the Southern Oscillation Index
Current El Niño Warnings and Episode Credits
Listen ad-free on Castria