The Market Is About to Do Something Insane Next Week…
Summary
Hosts reveal the new SPY-specific trading plan, featuring a 79% win rate and 5:1 return-to-risk ratio based on six years of backtested data. They detail entry criteria using the Fear and Greed index and order blocks, alongside a strategy to mimic SPXL leverage using 60-day SPY options to manage gamma risk. The episode also covers the roadmap for upcoming QQQ and sector rotation plans, emphasizes the importance of consistent position sizing, and demonstrates manual backtesting techniques to avoid forward bias.
Topics discussed
Introduction to new SPY, QQQ, and sector rotation plans
Backtest methodology, data sources, and disclaimers
Performance stats: 79% win rate and 5:1 return-to-risk
Entry rules: Trend, Fear & Greed, and Order Blocks
Exit nuances and transition to options strategy
Mimicking SPXL exposure with SPY options and delta
Determining optimal option expiration via standard deviation
Rolling options and capturing full trend moves
Q&A: Desktop timeline and position sizing consistency
Q&A: Inverse QQQ, Markov theory, and backtesting tools
Sponsor segments: Indeed, Uber Eats, and Gatorade
Explaining forward bias in manual backtesting
Demonstrating random bar replay for unbiased testing
The danger of being fooled by randomness
Testing confidence, 2016 data, and sample size importance
Announcement of free Charlie Class trading course
Q&A: Micro futures and exiting before expiration
Q&A: Gamma risk and sequential plan development order
Q&A: Current market activity and risk minimization
Closing remarks and sign-off
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