What would it take to crash home prices this year?
Summary
HousingWire Daily host Wheeler speaks with lead analyst Logan Motoshami to debunk the myth that home prices will crash to improve affordability. Motoshami argues that nominal price declines are rare and typically signal economic distress, noting that current conditions lack the credit boom, excess inventory, and distressed sellers seen in 2008. Instead, he highlights that wages are outpacing home price growth, naturally improving affordability without a market collapse. The discussion also covers the Road to Housing Act and the unrealistic expectations surrounding new construction supply.
Topics discussed
ICE Mortgage Technology ad
Intro: HousingWire headlines and Road to Housing Act
The myth of crashing home prices for affordability
Historical context: Nominal price declines are rare
US Competes ad: Federal research and housing
Wages outpacing home price growth improves affordability
Why a credit boom and bust is unlikely today
Inventory levels and the lack of distressed sellers
New listings data and debunking crash narratives
Estate Agent Growth ad
Austin case study: Supply, demand, and price corrections
Foreclosure data and the reality of debt deleveraging
Housing starts, government role, and private sector dynamics
Outro and HousingWire AI Summit promotion
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