After the jobs report, we may be down to only one rate hike in 2026
Summary
HousingWire Daily features lead analyst Logan Modashami discussing how the recent jobs report and falling oil prices are impacting mortgage rates and 10-year yields. Modashami explains that despite lower energy costs, yields remain elevated due to shifting Federal Reserve policy expectations, moving from anticipated rate cuts to potential hikes. He analyzes labor market data, noting suspicious participation drops likely tied to World Cup hiring, and suggests that hawkish Fed members may soften their stance as inflation pressures ease.
Topics discussed
Intro and top 5 trending housing stories
Why 10-year yields didn't drop with oil prices
Jobs report analysis and Fed break-even levels
Shift from rate cut expectations to rate hikes
World Cup impact on labor data and Fed hawks
Data revisions, mortgage rate forecasts, and humor
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Residential construction as a recession indicator
Outlook for Fed policy and closing remarks
Show outro and AI Summit promotion
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