What will mortgage rates do if the Iran conflict is really over?
Summary
HousingWire Daily features lead analyst Logan Motoshami discussing mortgage rate forecasts amid the Iran conflict resolution. Motoshami explains that while rates may stabilize, they won't return to pre-conflict lows due to embedded inflation and a hawkish Fed. The episode also covers steady housing demand, improved new listings data debunking the "lock-in" effect, and the role of bond spreads in moderating rate volatility.
Topics discussed
Intro, sponsor, and top 5 trending stories recap
Memorial Day chat and Iran conflict market noise
Why the Iran deal was inevitable and market impact
2026 rate forecasts and 10-year yield levels
Mortgage rate levels, spreads, and path to 6.25%
Fed hawkishness, economic data, and patience needed
Bond market dominance and geopolitical realities
Housing demand tracker: pending sales and affordability
Inventory growth rates and new listings data
Debunking the mortgage rate lock-in theory with data
Spread volatility and consequences of prolonged conflict
Outro, subscription offer, and AI Summit promo
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