Warsh talks about housing, but inflation is the problem
Summary
Logan Modeshami analyzes Kevin Warsh’s first Fed press conference, noting Warsh’s acknowledgment that monetary policy is overly restrictive for housing. He discusses the end of forward guidance and dot plots, alongside hawkish signals due to strong labor and inflation data. With oil prices falling and pending home sales beating estimates, Modeshami predicts mortgage rates will remain above 6%, making sub-5.75% rates unlikely.
Topics discussed
HousingWire AI Summit promotion
Introduction and pending home sales beat
Kevin Warsh's pro-housing stance on policy
End of dot plots and forward guidance
Conflict resolution and oil price impact
No rate cuts in 2026 and 10-year yield
New Fed task force and data analysis
Labor market breakevens and trade war
Inflation growth and tariff effects
HousingWire subscription offer
Rate hike possibilities and mortgage rates
Uneven policy and mortgage spreads
Summary of Fed presser changes
HousingWire app promotion
Retail sales and pending home sales data
Housing inventory and price growth trends
Purchase applications and market models
New Fed regime and housing outlook
Outro and home builder rankings
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