How jobs data will impact mortgage rates
Summary
Host and lead analyst Logan Motoshami discuss the upcoming Jobs Friday report, emphasizing that job growth above 33,000 and wage trends will dictate Fed policy. They analyze how slowing population growth normalizes lower job creation numbers and debate the potential removal of the Fed’s dual mandate. The conversation also covers mortgage rate forecasts, noting that rates likely won’t drop below 5.75% without a recession scare or significant geopolitical de-escalation.
Topics discussed
Intro, ICE ad, and top 5 HousingWire trending stories
Welcome Logan Motoshami and Real Trending Podcast award
Market update: 10-year yield, oil, and Middle East conflict
Jobs Friday preview: Jobless claims, wage growth, and Fed thresholds
Ad: Fund federal science and research
Why job growth expectations shifted: Population and demographics
Tariffs, labor shortages, and the data center boom
Labor vs. Inflation: Why the Fed's focus has changed
Ad: Estate Agent Growth for real estate agents
Clarifying the 'Labor over Inflation' narrative for mortgage rates
Fed dual mandate debate and Kevin Warsh's potential impact
Mortgage rate outlook: Spreads, neutral policy, and the low 6s
Summary of key indicators and future Fed dynamics
Outro and HousingWire AI Summit promotion
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