Is the Fed gearing up for rate cuts or rate hikes after the war?
Summary
Lead analyst Logan Modashami discusses how the Iran conflict and rising inflation are delaying Fed rate cuts, despite White House pressure. He analyzes the confirmation battle for Kevin Warsh and comments from Scott Bessent and Austan Goolsby, suggesting a wait-and-see approach until oil shocks subside. Modashami explains that mortgage rates remain near 5.75% as the 10-year yield hovers around 4.27%, with limited further relief from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s MBS purchases.
Topics discussed
Intro and sponsor messages
Current 10-year yield and Fed rate cut debate
Kevin Warsh confirmation and inflation data
Neutral policy and the impact of oil shocks
Labor market strength and Fed hawkish stance
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Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac MBS purchases
White House strategy and Fed internal conflict
Housing construction and AI disinflation
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Consumer consumption and real wage trends
Conflicting housing data and AI Summit promo
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