‘Still Counting’ After All These Years
Summary
Hosts Nate Silver, Claire Malone, and Galen Gertler open the 2026 midterm cycle by analyzing their "Flipper" model, which predicts an 83% chance of a Democratic House win but a 50-50 Senate split. They discuss the shifting Republican enthusiasm and Trump's low approval ratings while playing a game to examine key Senate races. The episode features a deep dive into North Carolina, where Democrat Roy Cooper is favored, and Michigan, where they debate whether progressive Abdul El-Sayed can overcome his "extremist" label to beat Mike Rogers.
Topics discussed
Introduction to the new Still Counting podcast
Episode overview and host introductions
Claire Malone's background and current projects
Nate Silver's journey from poker to 538
Dan Drake's career and the GD Politics podcast
Call to action for subscriptions and reviews
Midterm election model forecasts and trends
Analysis of polling data and voter enthusiasm
Discussion on Trump's approval and coalition
Gamified segment: Drawing competitive Senate races
Race analysis: North Carolina (Cooper vs. Watley)
Race analysis: Michigan (El-Sayed vs. Rogers)
Impact of progressive issues on the Michigan race
Candidate perceptions and polling on traits
Race analysis: Iowa (Jerk vs. Hinson)
Promotion of full episode on Still Counting feed
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