If The Polls Are Wrong, This Is Why
Summary
Laksha Jane shares new polling data showing Democrats leading by 9 points among likely voters, a margin comparable to the 2006 wave. The discussion highlights a 3-point turnout advantage for Democrats and significant persuasion gains, particularly among young voters and white non-college educated voters. Jane also analyzes foreign policy sentiment, noting the Iran war is currently more unpopular than Iraq, and explains why his forecast is slightly more bullish on the Senate than Nate Silver’s.
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