Martin Wolf on the US midterms: Is American democracy safe?
Summary
Martin Wolf interviews Robert Kagan, who argues the US has effectively entered a dictatorship under President Trump, citing the subversion of the Justice Department and military. Kagan warns that the November midterms are critical to preventing a constitutional crisis, as Trump may attempt to disrupt the seating of a new Congress if he loses. The discussion covers the collapse of Republican institutional loyalty, the failure of American elites to resist authoritarianism, and the long-term damage to US global influence and domestic institutions.
Topics discussed
Sponsor: Hard Lessons podcast
Intro: Martin Wolf on midterms and democracy
Introduction of guest Robert Kagan
Is the US already a dictatorship?
Will Trump accept a bad electoral result?
Trump's relationship with Congress
Elections in transitions to dictatorship
Power to overturn the election
Risk of civil conflict
Why worry without living under Putin?
Republican accommodation to Trump
Reasons for Republican silence
Greed, ambition, and fear among Republicans
How Trump accumulated power
Party solidarity vs. Constitution
Second term and democratic legitimacy
Misunderstanding institutional strength
The plan to change the American system
True believers in the mission
President as absolute monarch
Trump as a vessel for views
Comparison with historical autocrats
Institutions that could constrain power
Collapse of the American elite
Military as a personal arm
Corporate community alignment with Trump
Unpopularity and potential chaos
Iran war and tariff policy impact
Democrats avoiding the democracy narrative
Vulnerability to political failures
ICE overreach in Minnesota
Shallow conviction in liberal values
Scenarios for retaining power
Delaying election results
Using 'jihadists' as a pretext
Difficulty of overturning a decisive loss
Throwing the system into turmoil
Operating without a seated Congress
National argument over a coup
Importance of a Democratic Congress
Turning things around after election
Challenges for a new Congress
Defeating the movement of ideas
Silence of former presidents
George W. Bush's disappointment
Republican big figures' refusal to break
Oscillation in American history
Racism and foreign policy shifts
Mistaking liberal ascendancy for permanent
Risk of breaking out of cycles
Foreign policy and world order damage
Difficulty of undoing institutional damage
No return to previous global role
Rebuilding domestic institutions
Complexity of reinstating values
Hope for a more benevolent America
Corruption in Russia-Ukraine conflict
Sponsor: Strategic Alternatives
Closing remarks
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