Jim Welsh: Why I'm Raising Cash
Summary
Jim Welsh of Macro Tides joins the Financial Sense Newshour to analyze the Federal Reserve’s likely rate hike, driven by 2-year Treasury yields and inflation concerns. He highlights rising oil and diesel prices, noting that global supply constraints and El Niño could trigger a food price spike. Despite strong earnings, Welsh warns of a 7-10% market correction due to weak breadth and heavy concentration in semiconductors. He advises investors to raise cash now and prepare to buy gold and tech stocks once the pullback reaches key support levels.
Topics discussed
Introduction and market overview
Fed rate hike probability and 2-year Treasury yield
Fed credibility, election timing, and future hikes
Sponsor segment: Financial Sense Wealth Management
Stock market resilience, earnings, and technical weakness
Market bifurcation and semiconductor crowding
Oil prices, crack spreads, and global supply issues
California energy costs and refinery capacity
Factors that could break the market
Technical correction targets and market complacency
Index fund concentration and semiconductor cyclicality
Investment strategy: raising cash and re-entry points
Closing remarks and resource information
Legal disclaimer
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