Alex Imas and Phil Trammell – What remains scarce after AGI?
Summary
Dwarkesh Patel interviews Alex Enas and Phil Trammell on the economic implications of AGI, focusing on labor share, scarcity, and the "relational sector." They argue that historical forecasting is unreliable, emphasizing the need for better data on consumer demand elasticities rather than predicting specific outcomes. The discussion covers potential redistribution mechanisms like negative income tax versus universal basic capital, concluding that a "white-collar apocalypse" causing negative growth is economically implausible due to continued investment and demand elasticity.
Topics discussed
Introduction: Economics of AGI and human-in-the-loop
Historical context: Ricardo, automation, and job creation
Labor share vs. capital share in an automated economy
Relational goods and the value of human interaction
Jane Street's apprenticeship model and AI training
Political economy: Redistribution, UBI, and taxation
Current evidence: White-collar layoffs and elasticity
Scenario planning: Growth, abundance, and saturation
Future preferences: Human vs. AI interaction
Wealth accumulation, status, and capital returns
Indexing the economy, commoditization, and global impact
Listen ad-free on Castria