Drivetime Drivetime

Airfares could rise by 20% due to fuel crisis

Oct 20, 2026 · 7m

Summary

Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary predicts a historic 20% airfare increase next year due to soaring fuel costs and reduced airline capacity. Guest Eoin Corrie contextualizes this by noting that while fuel prices are high, consumer booking habits often lead to last-minute price drops, though route cuts are already underway. Additionally, Kevin McPartland explains that global refining capacity shortages, exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts, are driving up jet fuel and heating oil prices beyond crude oil costs.

Topics discussed

O'Leary warns of historic airfare hikes US airfare trends and Spirit bankruptcy European fuel costs and airline absorption Ryanair hedging strategy and spot prices Jet fuel refining capacity issues Advice on booking flights early Historical fare fluctuations and consumer behavior Consumer confidence and airline capacity cuts Specific route cancellations in Europe Introduction of Kevin McPartland Geopolitical factors affecting fuel prices Crude vs. refined product capacity Impact of Middle East conflict on refining Kerosene shortage and heating implications Carbon tax reduction offset by prices
Listen ad-free on Castria