Airfares could rise by 20% due to fuel crisis
Oct 20, 2026 · 7m
Summary
Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary predicts a historic 20% airfare increase next year due to soaring fuel costs and reduced airline capacity. Guest Eoin Corrie contextualizes this by noting that while fuel prices are high, consumer booking habits often lead to last-minute price drops, though route cuts are already underway. Additionally, Kevin McPartland explains that global refining capacity shortages, exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts, are driving up jet fuel and heating oil prices beyond crude oil costs.
Topics discussed
O'Leary warns of historic airfare hikes
US airfare trends and Spirit bankruptcy
European fuel costs and airline absorption
Ryanair hedging strategy and spot prices
Jet fuel refining capacity issues
Advice on booking flights early
Historical fare fluctuations and consumer behavior
Consumer confidence and airline capacity cuts
Specific route cancellations in Europe
Introduction of Kevin McPartland
Geopolitical factors affecting fuel prices
Crude vs. refined product capacity
Impact of Middle East conflict on refining
Kerosene shortage and heating implications
Carbon tax reduction offset by prices
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