Wrong numbers and why they survive, with Aaron Brown
Summary
Patrick McKenzie interviews Aaron Brown, author of *Wrong Numbers*, about institutional failures in data interpretation and the lack of accountability in scientific and media reporting. Brown shares anecdotes from his early career, such as conflicting estimates on tractor fuel types, to illustrate how high-status organizations often prioritize narrative over accuracy. The discussion highlights the contrast between financial markets, which penalize errors, and academic or journalistic fields that rarely retract flawed claims. They argue for applying rigorous skepticism and "skin in the game"…
Topics discussed
Introduction and the diesel vs. gasoline tractor anecdote
Institutional failure and the lack of accountability in science
Financial fraud, auditing, and the lack of rigor in research
Sponsor message: Mercury banking
Sponsor message: Granola AI notepad
Data transparency and the difficulty of replicating studies
The NTSB bus safety study and political bias
Media corrections vs. retractions and truth-seeking incentives
The 'River vs. Village' metaphor and betting on beliefs
Predicting war, pandemics, and historical fears
Climate change, energy efficiency, and pro-growth arguments
Logistics improvements and optimism about infrastructure
Conclusion and book promotion
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