Trump’s Polls Are Collapsing. Is a Blue Tsunami Coming? (w/ Ron Brownstein) | Bulwark on Sunday
Summary
Bill Kristol interviews election analyst Ron Brownstein about the 2026 midterms, focusing on President Trump’s historically low approval ratings and their impact on Republican prospects. They discuss whether Democrats can consolidate voters who disapprove of Trump, analyzing House generic ballots and key Senate races in states like Michigan, Georgia, and North Carolina. The conversation highlights the challenge for Republicans to retain voters who dislike Trump, while Democrats face internal divisions, particularly in the Michigan primary between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens.
Topics discussed
Resorts World NYC ad and intro
Trump's low approval ratings and midterm context
The core question: Can Republicans win Trump disapprovers?
Historical data on Trump disapprovers voting Republican
Why GOP candidates perform better with disapprovers now
Susan Collins as the outlier in Trump's first term
Generic ballot trends and the referendum dynamic
House races: Dem targets and non-college white voters
Senate map: The 'Trump 25' and Democratic vulnerabilities
Deep dive: Michigan, Maine, and North Carolina races
Long-shot Senate races in Ohio, Iowa, Texas, Alaska
Michigan Senate: El-Sayed vs. Stevens dynamics
El-Sayed's coalition and establishment concerns
Resorts World NYC ad break
Timeline for polling shifts and final thoughts
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