11/2/26: BP Full Midterm Predictions, Haley Stevens Endorses Rogers
Summary
Hosts Krystal and Saagar analyze the 2026 midterm elections with guests Ryan and Emily, who reveal their Senate map predictions amid shocking new polls from Atlas Intel and the New York Times. The discussion covers the potential for a historic Democratic wave, including upsets in deep red states like Kansas and Texas, driven by anti-Trump sentiment and economic dissatisfaction. The episode also examines the chaotic endorsement of Mike Rogers by Michigan’s Haley Stevens and features a panel of strategists breaking down key campaign ads and early voting trends.
Topics discussed
Intro and sponsor reads
Show preview: Midterms, polls, and panelists
Analysis of NYT-Siena and Atlas Intel polls
Debating polling accuracy and the 'art' of weighting
Historical comparisons: 2018, 1946, and wave dynamics
Sponsor break: IBM and Hero Bread
Crystal's Senate map prediction and reasoning
Ryan's Senate map prediction and upsets
Emily's Senate map and candidate quality analysis
Sponsor break and discussion on Trump's war politics
Deep dive: Specific state races and potential shockers
Implications of a Democratic supermajority and AI backlash
Sponsor break: IBM and Hero Bread
Haley Stevens' endorsement of Mike Rogers in Michigan
Impact of Stevens' switch on the Michigan race
Sponsor break: ChatGPT and Hotels.com
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