Polymarket and Kalshi Grapple With A New Class of Insider Trader
Summary
This episode examines the rise of insider trading on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, where users bet on real-world events. Hosts Sarah Holder, Danica Tsekova, and Leonardo Nicoletti discuss how traders exploit non-public information, from Super Bowl rehearsals to classified military data. They analyze the regulatory challenges, national security risks, and the ongoing cat-and-mouse game between platforms and sophisticated betters.
Topics discussed
Sponsors: IBM, The Hartford, and Wise
Intro: Betting on the Super Bowl anthem and insider trading
Defining insider trading on prediction markets
Analysis of suspicious trades on Polymarket
Case study: Soldier trading on Venezuela markets
The debate: Do insiders improve market accuracy?
Sponsors: You're the Problem, Disgraceland, Daybreak
Trump teleprompter operator case and platform responses
Regulatory challenges and US funding of global bets
Conclusion and final sponsor reads
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