At the Water's Edge At the Water's Edge

What Happens If the US Uses a Nuclear Weapon on Iran | Robert Pape

Sep 21, 2026 · 58m

Summary

Professor Pape analyzes the escalating conflict with Iran, warning that Tehran is consolidating power as an "oil hegemon" and advancing its nuclear program at the hardened Pickaxe Mountain site. He argues that a US tactical nuclear strike would be strategically disastrous, breaking the 80-year taboo, triggering a humanitarian crisis, and causing a global economic collapse through a foreign moratorium on US Treasury bonds. Pape also discusses the "spiral dynamic" of regional power vacuums and the political risks of further escalation ahead of the US midterms.

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