Have your views on Alberta politics shifted?
Summary
Host Andrew Brown discusses new Janet Brown Opinion Research polling showing a decline in support for Alberta separation and a popularity surge for Liberal PM Mark Carney over Premier Danielle Smith. Guests Janet Brown and data scientist John Santos analyze the shift, noting the UCP is now tied with the NDP and that Smith is facing criticism from both separatist and federalist voters. The episode explores how the upcoming referendum has energized the NDP and created a complex political landscape where traditional conservatives are reevaluating their party loyalties.
Topics discussed
Intro: Jesse Eisenberg and the shift in Alberta polling
Polling overview: Separation support down, UCP ties NDP
Janet Brown on the softening of separatist sentiment
Mark Carney's popularity vs. Danielle Smith's decline
Caller Gavin: Dissatisfaction with government and immigration
Analysis of Smith's impression scores and Carney's persona
Public consensus on limiting services for temporary residents
The complexity of the 9 non-separation referendum questions
Is there a path out of unpopularity for Danielle Smith?
Framing the poll: Bad news for UCP or good for NDP?
Caller Shane: Criticism of Smith's flip-flopping on autonomy
Discussion on identity politics and UCP focus on economy
Caller Calvin: Support for Smith despite party switch
Smith's dilemma: Balancing federal friction and progress
Caller Ahmed: UCP member dissatisfied with referendum mandate
News break: Referendum turnout and sports updates
Post-break recap: Carney popularity and separation trends
Analyzing UCP losses and the long game for Smith
Emails and calls: Criticism of spending and division
Caller Terry: Conservative values vs. UCP brand loyalty
Methodology: Polling accuracy and the 'middle voter'
Final thoughts: Social division and future of the referendum
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